研究目的
Investigating the economic valuation of photovoltaic power investments in existing buildings using Real Options theory to account for uncertainties in tariffs, technology costs, and regulatory policy.
研究成果
The Real Options Valuation (ROV) method provides a more nuanced approach to assessing rooftop PV projects by accounting for the value of flexibility in investment timing under uncertainty. Unlike traditional NPV methods, ROV suggests that some projects should be postponed rather than dismissed, offering a strategic advantage in decision-making. This approach can lead to better investment allocation and faster development of distributed PV power capacity, enhancing energy system sustainability.
研究不足
The study is limited by the assumptions made in modeling uncertainties, such as the use of Geometric Brownian Motion for tariff prices and investment costs, and the focus on a specific case study which may not be generalizable to all contexts. Additionally, the method does not account for all possible market variables and their interactions.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study employs Real Options theory, stochastic simulation, linear regression, and backward dynamic programming to appraise investments in PV generation systems.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
The case study involves a rooftop PV-system in a government building in Argentina, with data on PV system capacity, annual energy production, and investment costs.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
PVSOL software for PV system design and simulation, and Matlab for stochastic simulations and real option valuation.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The methodology includes modeling uncertainties in electricity tariffs and investment costs, simulating future scenarios, and applying the Least-Square Monte Carlo (LSM) method for option valuation.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
The analysis involves estimating the net present value (NPV) of the project, the value of the deferral option, and conducting sensitivity analyses to assess the impact of capital cost and option maturity on project valuation.
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