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High‐frequency standard deviation of the capacity factor of renewable energy facilities – part 1: solar photovoltaic

DOI:10.1002/est2.101 期刊:Energy Storage 出版年份:2019 更新时间:2025-09-19 17:13:59
摘要: It is important to secure for every solar photovoltaic energy installation the highest-possible average (mean) capacity factor, as well as the lowest-possible standard-deviation, this latter computed with high frequency. High-frequency data of solar photovoltaic energy facilities are, however, very hard to be found. There are no estimations in the literature of the standard deviation of the capacity factor of solar photovoltaic energy installations sampled with high frequency. Here we show the data sampled every 5 minutes for the solar photovoltaic energy facilities connected to the Australian National Electricity Market grid during the year 2018. The average capacity factors are about 27-28% flat panel, and 31-32% tracking flat panel. The standard deviations have larger values at about 37-38%, for coefficients of variation 120-130%. As solar photovoltaic energy facilities only produce electricity during the daylight time, that is predictable, the statistic analysis is also applied to the daylight times only. While average daylight-only capacity factors are about twice the previous values, standard deviations are slightly less, for coefficients of variations more than halved at 55-65%. The analysis highlights the extreme variability of solar energy helping the design of the energy storage needed for making possible an efficient, resilient, renewable energy-only grid. The collected and interpreted information and the provided analysis are filing a gap in the area of renewable energy and energy harvesting technology based on wind and solar photovoltaics where variability has been so far underevaluated.
作者: Alberto Boretti
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研究概述 实验方案

To assess the high-frequency variability of the capacity factors of solar photovoltaic energy facilities connected to the Australian National Electricity Market grid, focusing on the average capacity factor and its standard deviation.

The study provides the first high-frequency (5 minutes sampling) statistic for solar photovoltaic energy facilities, highlighting the need for energy storage and sophisticated control of production, storage, and consumption for a renewable energy-only grid. The average capacity factors are about 27-28% for flat panel and 31-32% for tracking flat panel, with standard deviations of 37-38%. Daylight-only analysis shows doubled average capacity factors and slightly reduced standard deviations, leading to more than halved coefficients of variation.

The study is limited by the availability of high-frequency data, with only a few solar energy facilities of decent size (>50 MW) with data over the full year in 2018. The sampling frequency, while high at 5 minutes, is suggested to be even higher (1 minute or less) for better grid balancing analysis.

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