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[IEEE 2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) - Boise, ID, USA (2018.6.24-2018.6.28)] 2018 IEEE International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems (PMAPS) - Understanding Inter-Annual Variability of PV Energy Production in the Contiguous United States
摘要： Year-to-year variability of photovoltaic (PV) generation is an important factor for project financing as well as for modeling the reliability and resource adequacy of power systems. In this work, we analyze inter-annual variability of PV generation across the contiguous United States using the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) from 1998 to 2014. We compare typical meteorological year (TMY) against the long-term mean, and find that on average the TMY tends to overpredict estimated PV production. However, we also found significant regional bias and spatial clustering in that comparison, such that there are many regional pockets of underprediction as well. Finally, we show that there is not a single year of data that most closely approximates a representative “resource year” for all regions of the United States. These results point to the need to understand inter-annual variability at individual sites and to be aware of the shortcomings of using TMY or a single year of data for project or grid modeling.
关键词： Capacity Value,National Solar Radiation Database,PV,Probability Exceedance,Long-term Variability
更新于2025-09-10 09:29:36
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The Adjusted Optical Properties for Galileo/BeiDou-2/QZS-1 Satellites and Initial Results on BeiDou-3e and QZS-2 satellites
摘要： Solar Radiation Pressure (SRP) is the dominant non-gravitational perturbation for GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) satellites. In the absence of precise surface models, the Empirical CODE Orbit Models (ECOM, ECOM2) are widely used in GNSS satellite orbit determination. Based on previous studies, the use of an a priori box-wing model enhances the ECOM model, especially if the spacecraft is a stretched body satellite. However, so far not all the GNSS system providers have published their metadata. To ensure a precise use of the a priori box-wing model, we estimate the optical parameters of all the Galileo, BeiDou-2, and QZS-1 (Quasi Zenith Satellite System) satellites based on the physical processes from SRP to acceleration. Validation using orbit prediction proves that the adjusted parameters of Galileo and QZS-1 satellites exhibit almost the same performance as the corresponding published and ”best guess” values. Whereas, the estimated parameters of BeiDou-2 satellites demonstrate an improvement of more than 60% over the initial ”guess” values. The resulting optical parameters of all the satellites are introduced into an a priori box-wing model, which is jointly used with ECOM and ECOM2 model in the orbit determination. Results show that the pure ECOM2 model exhibits better performance than the pure ECOM model for Galileo, BeiDou-2 GEO and QZS-1 orbits. Combined with the a priori box-wing model the ECOM model (ECOM+BW) results in the best Galileo, BeiDou-2 GEO and QZS-1 orbits. The standard deviation (STD) of satellite laser ranging residuals reduce by about 20% and 5% with respect to the pure ECOM2 model for Galileo and BeiDou-2 GEO orbits, while the reductions are about 40% and 60% for QZS-1 orbits in yaw-steering and orbit-normal mode respectively. BeiDou-2 IGSO and MEO satellite orbits do not bene?t much from the a priori box-wing model. In summary, we suggest setting up a uni?ed SRP model of ECOM+BW for Galileo, QZS-1, and BeiDou-2 orbits based on the adjusted metadata. In addition, we estimate the optical parameters of BeiDou-3e and QZS-2 satellites using a limited number of tracking stations. Results regarding the uni?ed SRP model indicate the same advantages, the STD of satellite laser ranging residuals reduces by about 30% and 20% for QZS-2 and BeiDou-3e orbits respectively over orbit products without a priori model. The estimation procedure is e?ective and easy to apply to the new emerging satellites in the future.
关键词： Box-wing model,Optical property adjustment,Solar radiation pressure model,Metadata,QZS-2 and BeiDou-3e
更新于2025-09-10 09:29:36
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From point to area: worldwide assessment of the representativeness of monthly surface solar radiation records
摘要： The representativeness of surface solar radiation (SSR) point observations is an important issue when using them in combination with gridded data. We conduct a comprehensive near-global (50?S-55?N ) analysis on the representativeness of SSR point observations on the monthly mean time scale. Thereto, we apply the existing concepts of decorrelation lengths (δ), spatial sampling biases (β), and spatial sampling errors ((cid:15)) to three high-resolution gridded monthly mean SSR data sets (CLARA, SARAH-P, and SARAH-E) provided by the Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring. While δ quanti?es the area for which a point observation is representative, β and (cid:15) are uncertainty estimates with respect to the one-degree reference grid (G). For this grid we ?nd a near-global average δG = 3.4?, βG = 1.4W m?2, and (cid:15)G = 7.6W m?2 with substantial regional di?erences. Disregarding tropical, mountainous, and some coastal regions, monthly SSR point observations can largely be considered representative of a one-degree grid. Since (cid:15) is an uncorrectable error the total uncertainty when combining point with one-degree gridded data is roughly 40% higher than the uncertainty of station-based SSR measurements alone if a rigorous bias correction is applied. Cloud cover and terrain data can at maximum explain 50% of the patterns of the representativeness metrics. We apply our methodology to the stations of the Baseline Surface Radiation Network. Overall, this study shows that representativeness is strongly dependent on local conditions and that all three metrics (δ, β, and (cid:15)) must be considered for a comprehensive assessment of representativeness.
关键词： decorrelation lengths,representativeness,spatial sampling biases,spatial sampling errors,surface solar radiation
更新于2025-09-10 09:29:36
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Performance investigation of a hybrid PV-diesel power system for remote areas
摘要： Algeria is in a region with an enormous potential of solar energy for power generation. However, photovoltaic (PV) power plants have not yet been developed sufficiently in the country, and its applications such as PV pumping, solar distillation, and solar heating. The main problem is the high maintenance, operating costs, fossil‐fuel transportation, and CO2 emission of Bordj Badji Mokhtar's (BBM's) diesel power plant that exhibits a noteworthy issue in south Algeria. This paper presents the results of a theoretical and experimental study for PV/diesel hybrid energy system (HES) considering the load demand profile and the solar radiation in isolated area of south Algeria. Suggested hybridization based on a renewable energy with a view to an improved environment is promising. Study results show the performance of PV/diesel system based on solar radiation. The experiment load curve in this typical area may conduct the diesel generator to operate at 60% to 70% of its nominal power with less fuel consumption, and it has been verified during this study that the implementation of a PV/diesel hybrid system is efficient for higher load and higher solar radiation. Results and discussions are encouraging considering less emission of greenhouse gases and less storage of fuel, which drives the government to draw a political arrangement for the improvement of cleaner forms of electricity generation.
关键词： hybrid energy system (HES),PV generator,CO2 emission,South Algeria,diesel power plant,fuel consumption,solar radiation
更新于2025-09-10 09:29:36
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Solar Energy Potential in Nepal and Global Context
摘要： Solar radiation is the best option and cost effective energy resources of this world from 21st century onwards. In this study monthly, seasonal and annual variation of global solar insolation at Biratnagar, Lukla, Kathmandu, Pokhara, of the year 2007 to 2012, Jumla of the year 2011 to 2012 and Simikot 2011/2012 were carried out. The study has shown the variation of global solar insolation with month, season, year, atmospheric condition, and altitude of the site concerned. The maximum value of monthly, seasonal, and yearly global solar insolation was reported at Jumla whereas the minimum monthly, seasonal, and yearly global solar insolation were observed at Kathmandu. From the observation the abundant solar irradiation in Nepal shows encouraging atmosphere for solar farming venture in near future relating to energy management for Nepal.
关键词： solar farming,Solar insolation,global solar radiation,alternative energy
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46
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Energy-exergy modeling of solar radiation with most influencing input parameters
摘要： In this study, a new soft computing model Gaussian process regression (GPR) was evaluated for modeling the total solar radiation (TSR) and exergy (Ф) in Hakkari province (the region with the highest sunshine duration), Turkey. For this purpose, meteorological data include average, maximum and minimum temperature (Tave, Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity (H), sea level pressure (P), wind speed (W), and total sunbathing time (TST), wihch were used, and sensitivity analysis was applied for evaluating the results of TSR and Ф modeling. The results showed that all the input variables have significant impact on TSR and Ф modeling. Mean absolute percentage error and coefficient of determination (R2) for TSR and Ф predicted by GPR were 1.51–7.02% and 0.97–0.95, respectively. Application of five-fold cross validation method showed that GPR model is able to predict the TSR and Ф with a small size of data, but for more accuracy, it is suggested to use more than 70% of total data set for training the models. This research showed that GPR has a good ability for modeling the TSR and Ф with high accuracy, and so the engineers can use this method for the TSR and Ф prediction without using the solar radiation or exergy-to-energy ratio.
关键词： solar energy,Solar radiation exergy,Hakkari province of Turkey,Gaussian process regression (GPR),modeling
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46
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Daily Variation Law of Solar Radiation Flux Density Incident on the Horizontal Surface
摘要： The instantaneous solar radiation flux density incident on the horizontal surface near the ground, consisted of three sections, direct radiation, scattered radiation, and thermal radiation flowing down through the atmosphere, directly or indirectly comes from the sun. The dynamics of the solar radiation flux density incident on the horizontal surface near the ground influence all life processes and environment. In this study, the daily variation law of solar radiation flux density incident on the horizontal surface developed. The results showed that generally, sky conditions is stable, and the daily dynamic in the solar radiation flux density incident on the horizontal surface near the ground is the function of time, and can be described by a normal distribution model in a day. The main parameters of the model change with date and the meteorological conditions in a day.
关键词： Environment,Diurnal total solar energy,Hour,Sky conditions,Solar radiation,Daily variation law,Horizontal surface,Flux density
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46
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Solar and climatic high performance factors for the placement of solar power plants in Argentina Andes sites. Comparison with African and Asian sites.
摘要： The installation of solar power plants is currently having a notable expansion. The results presented show that the Argentinean Andes range, from the central to northern latitudes, is an excellent region for the placement of these plants, due to the sum of different positive factors: very high mean annual solar irradiation, low ambient temperature and relative humidity, low precipitable water content, normal wind speeds and extremely low aerosol content of the atmosphere. The proposed regions are nearby San Antonio de los Cobres and El Leoncito, and are compared with two important locations where large solar power plants have been (or will be) built: a site in Africa (Ouarzazate, Morocco) and one in Asia (Dubai, Arab Emirates). We present results of the possible production of electricity, supplying a total of about 21000 GWh, which is 15.6% of the 2015 Argentinean electric consumption and, consequently, could reduce the emission of greenhouse gases in a total mass of 11.2 million tons of CO2eq. The installation of this type of renewable power plants, will contribute significantly to the Argentinean population due to frequent (mainly summer) cutoff of electric power supply and, in particular, to isolated (low income) populations leaving in the Argentinean Andes range.
关键词： Solar radiation,Argentina,Andes,Climatic data,Solar power plant
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46
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AIP Conference Proceedings [Author(s) SolarPACES 2017: International Conference on Concentrating Solar Power and Chemical Energy Systems - Santiago, Chile (26–29 September 2017)] - Progresses in DNI measurements in Southern Portugal
摘要： The present work describes the progresses made in the measurement of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) in the south of Portugal (Southern Europe), with a network of eleven solar radiation measurement stations in several locations scattered through this region. Since the beginning of this initiative, in 2014, the network has increased from 8 to 11 measuring stations and will, in a short time, increase to 12. The increase in the number of measuring locations and of the period of measurements leads to a better characterization of the region in terms of DNI availability and creates conditions for in depth studies. This kind of infrastructure is essential for the region, which is known for its high annual availability of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and its reduced inter-annual variability, thus a high DNI annual availability is also expected together with a low inter-annual variability. This effort aims at highlighting the potential of Southern Portugal as a prime location for the development and implementation of Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) Plants. A preliminary map of DNI availability is presented, with estimated values ranging from 1841 to 2073 kWh/m2/year. These results were compared with the DNI availability estimated from 13 years (2003-2015) of global and diffuse irradiance measurements in one of the locations of the network (évora, central Alentejo), and a good agreement was found, thus providing some statistical value to the recent DNI measurements.
关键词： CSP,Portugal,measurement,DNI,solar radiation
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46
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Optimal Site Selection for Sittinga Solar Park using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Geographical Information Systems (GIS)
摘要： Among the renewable powers sources, solar is rapidly becoming popular being inexhaustible, clean, and dependable. It is also becoming more efficient since the photovoltaic solar cells’ power conversion efficiency is rising. Following these trends, solar power will become more affordable in years to come and considerable investments are to be expected. Despite the size of solar plants, the sitting procedure is a crucial factor for their efficiency and financial viability. Many aspects rule such decision; legal, environmental, technical, and financial to name some. This paper describes a general integrated framework to evaluate land suitability for the optimal placement of photovoltaic solar power plants, which is based on a combination of a Geographic Information System (GIS), remote sensing techniques and multi-criteria decision making methods. An application of the proposed framework for Limassol District in Cyprus is further illustrated. The combination of GIS and multi-criteria methods, consist an excellent analysis tool that creates an extensive database of spatial and non spatial data that will be used to simplify problems, to solve and promote the use of multiple criteria. A set of environmental, economic, social and technical constrains based on recent Cypriot legislation, European’s Union policies and experts’ advices, identifies the potential sites for solar park installation. The pair-wise comparison method in the context of the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is applied to estimate the criteria weights in order to establish their relative importance in site evaluation. In addition, four different methods to combine information layers and check their sensitivity were used. The first considered all the criteria as being equally important and assign them equal weight, while the others grouped the criteria and graded them according to their objective perceived importance. The overall suitability of the study region for sitting solar park is appraised through the summation rule. Strict application of the framework depicts 3.0% of the study region scoring best suitability index for solar resource exploitation, hence minimizing risk of a potential investment. However, using different weighting schemes for criteria, suitable areas may reach up to 83% of the study region. The suggested methodological framework applied can be easily utilized by potential investors and renewable energy developers, through a front end web based application with proper GUI for personalized weighting schemes.
关键词： Site Evaluation,Renewable Energy Sitting,Remote Sensing,Solar Radiation,Decision Analysis,Analytic Hierarchy Process,GIS Modeling
更新于2025-09-09 09:28:46