[IEEE 2019 International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST) - Porto, Portugal (2019.9.9-2019.9.11)] 2019 International Conference on Smart Energy Systems and Technologies (SEST) - Machine Learning Algorithms in Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation

摘要： Due to the intrinsic intermittency and stochastic nature of solar power, accurate forecasting of the photovoltaic (PV) generation is crucial for the operation and planning of PV-intensive power systems. Several PV forecasting methods based on machine learning algorithms have recently emerged, but a complete assessment of their performance on a common framework is still missing from the literature. In this paper, a comprehensive comparative analysis is performed, evaluating ten recent neural networks and intelligent algorithms of the literature in short-term PV forecasting. All methods are properly fine-tuned and assessed on a one-year dataset of a 406 MWp PV plant in the UK. Furthermore, a new hybrid prediction strategy is proposed and evaluated, derived as an aggregation of the most well-performing forecasting models. Simulation results in MATLAB show that the season of the year affects the accuracy of all methods, the proposed hybrid one performing most favorably overall.