研究目的
To propose a new PV output forecasting method including the extraction of atmospheric parameters and the calculation of the solar spectrum based on Bird’s spectral model, named the 'Miyazaki Spectrum-to-Energy method' (MS2E), to improve forecast accuracy by considering the fluctuation of atmospheric parameters and an overcast spectral model.
研究成果
The proposed MS2E method, considering incident angle and spectral changes owing to atmospheric parameters and cloud conditions, accurately estimated PV output. The method was validated by comparing estimated PR with measured PR for three types of PV modules. The study successfully estimated the energy yield of various PVs installed across Japan, demonstrating the method's applicability for PV output forecasting.
研究不足
The study is limited by the specific types of PV modules used and the geographical location of the study (Japan). The model's accuracy may vary under different atmospheric conditions not covered in the study.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study involved the extraction of atmospheric parameters using Bird’s spectrum model from the measured global spectrum, examination of seasonal fluctuation of atmospheric parameters, proposal of an overcast spectrum model, and calculation of the all-weather solar spectrum through linear combination.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Three types of PV modules were installed at the University of Miyazaki, and measurements were carried out for two years. The solar spectrum was measured using spectro-radiometers.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
PV modules (fixed Si, two-axis tracking Si, and fixed InGaP/GaAs/InGaAs triple-junction solar cells), spectro-radiometers (EKO MS-711, MS-712), and pyranometers (EKO MS-602, MS-411) were used.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Measurements were carried out every 3 min for PV modules and every 10 min for the solar spectrum.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
The short-circuit current, open-circuit voltage, and fill factor of various PVs were calculated, and the maximum power was estimated.
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