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[IEEE 2019 IEEE 46th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC) - Chicago, IL, USA (2019.6.16-2019.6.21)] 2019 IEEE 46th Photovoltaic Specialists Conference (PVSC) - Performance Loss Rate Consistency and Uncertainty Across Multiple Methods and Filtering Criteria

DOI:10.1109/PVSC40753.2019.8980928 出版年份:2019 更新时间:2025-09-19 17:13:59
摘要: In this paper, a joint feature selection and parameter estimation algorithm is presented for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs). New parameters, feature saliencies, are introduced to the model and used to select features that distinguish between states. The feature saliencies represent the probability that a feature is relevant by distinguishing between state-dependent and state-independent distributions. An expectation maximization algorithm is used to calculate maximum a posteriori estimates for model parameters. An exponential prior on the feature saliencies is compared with a beta prior. These priors can be used to include cost in the model estimation and feature selection process. This algorithm is tested against maximum likelihood estimates and a variational Bayesian method. For the HMM, four formulations are compared on a synthetic data set generated by models with known parameters, a tool wear data set, and data collected during a painting process. For the HSMM, two formulations, maximum likelihood and maximum a posteriori, are tested on the latter two data sets, demonstrating that the feature saliency method of feature selection can be extended to semi-Markov processes. The literature on feature selection speci?cally for HMMs is sparse, and non-existent for HSMMs. This paper ?lls a gap in the literature concerning simultaneous feature selection and parameter estimation for HMMs using the EM algorithm, and introduces the notion of selecting features with respect to cost for HMMs.
作者: STEPHEN ADAMS,PETER A. BELING,RANDY COGILL
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研究概述 实验方案

To present a joint feature selection and parameter estimation algorithm for hidden Markov models (HMMs) and hidden semi-Markov models (HSMMs), introducing new parameters called feature saliencies to select features that distinguish between states, and to compare an exponential prior on the feature saliencies with a beta prior.

The proposed MAP formulation for feature selection in HMMs and HSMMs provides accurate parameter estimates and feature saliencies, with the added advantage of incorporating the cost of collecting features into the selection process. The exponential prior on feature saliencies is preferred over the beta prior. The method is robust to changes in training data and modeling assumptions, and can be extended to semi-Markov processes.

The algorithm assumes the number of hidden states is known, which may not always be the case in practical applications. The computational complexity increases with the number of features and states.

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