研究目的
The objective of this paper is to propose a simple prediction model for day-ahead solar insolation using weather observation data. The predicted solar insolation would be used for estimating energy production in advance.
研究成果
The prediction of the PV system energy production through solar insolation predictions showed a pattern similar to the solar insolation prediction results. The energy production estimation by the predicted insolation tended to yield underestimates compared to the real produced energy. The monitoring period was characterized by severe weather fluctuations. To accommodate such weather fluctuations in the future, it may be necessary to compensate for climate change.
研究不足
The prediction model proposed in this study predicts the next day’s solar insolation by using the weather conditions of the previous day. However, the weather conditions of the monitoring period changed extensively each day, which made it difficult to predict the insolation. The energy production error was especially significant on days when the solar radiation suddenly changed due to rain or snow.