研究目的
To design an accurate forecast model for PV power output over a range of forecast horizon to address the challenges associated with increased penetration of solar PV.
研究成果
The proposed neural network ensemble framework significantly improves the forecast accuracy in comparison with individual and benchmark models for seasonal clear, partially cloudy, and cloudy days. The framework demonstrates less prediction error and achieves decreases in prediction error as compared to other models.
研究不足
The technical and application constraints of the experiments, as well as potential areas for optimization, are not explicitly mentioned in the provided content.
1:Experimental Design and Method Selection:
A neural network ensemble (NNE) scheme based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) trained feedforward neural network (FNN) is proposed. Five different FNN structures with varying network complexities are used.
2:Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Historical data of PV power output, solar irradiance, wind speed, temperature, and humidity from seven solar PV sites of the University of Queensland, Australia.
3:List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
Not explicitly mentioned.
4:Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The NNE framework involves data preprocessing, wavelet decomposition, construction of predictors in NNE, wavelet reconstruction, and trim aggregation technique.
5:Data Analysis Methods:
Performance is analyzed using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and error variance.
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