研究目的
Investigating the dynamic model for solar radiation in the Tyrrhenian Basin to understand its space-time variability and the effects of environmental and alternative energy development.
研究成果
The dynamic model for solar radiation in the Tyrrhenian Basin effectively captures non-symmetric spatial and temporal variability, with simultaneous effects improving model performance. Constraints based on meteorological knowledge help manage parameter complexity, enhancing the model's applicability for environmental and energy studies.
研究不足
The model's complexity increases with the number of parameters, requiring large datasets for accurate estimation. Constraints based on a priori information may not capture all spatial and temporal dynamics.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
The study employs a space-time model for solar radiation, focusing on the Tyrrhenian Basin. It utilizes a dynamic model that captures spatial and temporal variability without imposing symmetrical or distance-proportional spatial weights.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Daily average solar radiation and sunshine duration data from fifteen Italian meteorological stations in the Tyrrhenian Basin from January 1st, 1991, to December 31st,
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
19 Pyrheliometer for solar radiation measurement and heliophonograph for sunshine duration measurement.
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
The model includes simultaneous and lagged spatial effects, with constraints based on a priori meteorological knowledge to reduce the number of parameters.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Maximum likelihood estimation, both constrained and unconstrained, with likelihood ratio tests for significance of constraints.
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