研究目的
To identify and assess the impact of implementation barriers hindering a successful transition to a low-carbon Greek power system based on large-scale solar photovoltaics, with a focus on prosumers, and to determine and quantify potential consequences of such a transition.
研究成果
The study concludes that a solar-based energy transition in Greece faces barriers like economic recession and regulatory instability, but can have positive long-term economic impacts. Self-consumption optimization may increase electricity prices, necessitating smart policies. Future research should address model weaknesses and explore trade-offs between large-scale and decentralized generation.
研究不足
Limitations include the heuristic algorithm in BSAM for unit commitment, lack of wage rigidity and network restrictions in MEMO, non-quantitative nature and absence of time consideration in FCM, and assumptions in scenario parameters such as RES targets and costs.
1：Experimental Design and Method Selection:
A transdisciplinary approach using fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) to capture stakeholder knowledge, followed by quantitative modeling with a Business Strategy Assessment Model (BSAM) and a MacroEconomic Mitigations Options (MEMO) model.
2：Sample Selection and Data Sources:
Fourteen stakeholders from various groups including experts from CRES, HTSO, HEDNO, policymakers, researchers, and private sector. Data includes electricity demand projections, RES installation capacities, and cost assumptions.
3：List of Experimental Equipment and Materials:
No specific physical equipment; models are computational (BSAM and MEMO).
4：Experimental Procedures and Operational Workflow:
Stakeholder workshop to design FCM, scenario development for socioeconomic futures, simulation of FCM and models to quantify risks and impacts.
5：Data Analysis Methods:
Simulation of FCM with hyperbolic tangent function, BSAM for wholesale electricity prices, MEMO for macroeconomic impacts using linear approximations and optimization problems.
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